Biblical Recorder's circulation decline paralleled by other Baptist publications
Assignment
At the 1996 annual meeting of the Baptist State Convention of North Carolina, messengers approved the following motion:"That the Executive Committee of the General Board conduct a study of the causes of the reduction in paid subscriptions to the Biblical Recorder and shall, as part of the study, request information from the directors of the Biblical Recorder. The Executive Committee shall report its findings to the General Board and to the 1997 Convention."
At the January 1997 meeting of the Executive Committee, chair Michael Queen appointed the following persons to an ad hoc committee to study the reduction of subscriptions to the Biblical Recorder: Kelly Belcher, Charlotte; Raymond Earp, Beaufort; Katie Ethridge, Beaufort; Kenneth Ridings, Asheville; John Small, Greensboro; David Turner, Statesville; and Ed Beddingfield, Sylva, chair.
Methodology
The committee obtained information for our study from the following sources:
1.
We gathered statistical information as reported in the Annuals of the Baptist State Convention of North Carolina and the Southern Baptist Convention.
 The 167th session
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2.
We corresponded with the editor of the Biblical Recorder and obtained comprehensive information concerning circulation and income and expenses of the Recorder from 1977-96; comparative Cooperative Program allocations to the Recorder and selected analogous state Baptist papers; circulation patterns for those same papers; a representative sample of letters and comments accompanying cancellation and renewal notices to the Recorder; and a summary report by the editor of requests to cancel church, individual and complimentary subscriptions to the Recorder from 1993-97.
3.
We requested and obtained a written statement from the editor entitled "Editor's Perspective on Circulation Decline."
4.
We met with a liaison committee of the Recorder's Board of Directors, appointed by the board to relate to our committee. That liaison committee included Gregory Rogers, chair of the board; Don Bolden, vice chair; and Jeff Roberts, Jim Turner, R.N. Hardin and Woodrow Neal. Liaison committee members offered their individual perspectives on the decline of Recorder subscriptions and answered questions. The chair also provided us with a written statement.
5.
We received from the liaison committee a copy of the "Biblical Recorder Readership Survey" commissioned by the Recorder and completed in 1989 by Craig and Associates Inc. The scientifically conducted survey presented data concerning circulation trends and offered recommendations to address the decline. All but one of the recommendations have been implemented by the Recorder.
6.
We corresponded with the editors of 12 state Baptist papers most analogous to the Biblical Recorder in terms of location, age, size and subscription demographics, asking for their papers' subscription data, for their interpretation of any decline and for their evaluation of the statement we received from the Recorder editor ("Editor's Perspective on Circulation Decline"). Six editors responded to our letter.
7.
We obtained from the Biblical Recorder a list of all churches which have canceled their "Every Home Plan" or "Club Plan" subscriptions, or reduced subscriptions by more than five, since 1993. (Information prior to that date is stored on a former computer system incompatible with the Recorder's current system, and is not available.)We wrote an informal survey listing 18 possible opinions concerning why a church might reduce or cancel its subscriptions.
We asked responents to rate whether each opinion had "no influence," "some influence" or "strong influence" over their decision to reduce or cancel their subscriptions, with space for a comment regarding each opinion. We also asked for general information regarding the method a church uses to decide on its subscriptions. Surveys were mailed to all 493 churches whose subscriptions were canceled or reduced by more than five: one survey to the pastor, one to the Woman's Missionary Union (WMU) director, and one to either the deacon chair or the Sunday School director.
Of 1,442 surveys mailed, 261 were returned representing at least 153 churches in 67 associations. (The survey made it optional for respondents to identify themselves, and not all did.)
8.
We received seven letters from individuals across the state at their own initiative. Some made suggestions for conducting our study and some offered recommendations and comments concerning the Recorder itself.
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Before discussing the results of the study, the committee offers two words of caution. First, though a portion of the information we considered was gathered scientifically (the 1989 Craig and Associates readership survey), the bulk of the material was collected from a wide variety of sources using a similar variety of methods. Some information, such as statistics from Convention Annuals, is factual. Other material, such as our own survey, reflects not fact, but opinion. And the survey, as well as the letters to other editors, depended on voluntary responses. So the committee makes no claims of statistical or interpretive perfection concerning our report. We do believe some general trends are evident.Second, the committee has been careful to stay within our assigned task: to study "the causes of the reduction in paid subscriptions to the Biblical Recorder." As stated, some of these causes may be inferred from certain facts. Other causes are based on opinion and perception. In matters of opinion and perception, it was not our task to evaluate the validity of those opinions and perceptions, but simply to report them. If an opinion is held, it becomes a reason for behavior, whether or not it is based in fact.
Conclusions
With these cautions in mind, following are the results of our study which the committee feels have significant bearing on the question we were asked:
1.
During the 20 years from 1977-96, total subscriptions to the Biblical Recorder declined from approximately 119,000 to approximately 56,000, a reduction of 53 percent. The peak year was 1978, six years before the current editor took office, with approximately 120,000 subscriptions. By the year the editorship changed in 1983, circulation had declined to about 98,000.
Conclusion:
The decline in subscriptions began five years before the current editor took office, and has continued since.
2.
Each one of the 12 state papers most analogous to the Recorder in location, age, size and demographics has experienced a decline in circulation. In the 10 years from 198796, Recorder subscriptions declined by 33 percent. Subscriptions to the other 12 papers declined by percentages ranging from 16 percent to 52 percent. Average decline for the 12 papers plus the Recorder, was 28 percent.In addition, of all 39 Baptist papers, 31 have experienced a decline in subscriptions over the last 10 years. The eight papers reporting increases are all comparitively new, are located in pioneer areas and have an average circulation of about 3,500. Decreases in the other 31 papers range from 1 percent to 86 percent, with an average of 30 percent.
CONCLUSION:
The decline in subscriptions to the Biblical Recorder is reflected universally among the 12 analogous state papers. It is also an across-the-board issue in Baptist life.3.
During the 10 years from 198796, individual paid subscriptions to the Biblical Recorder showed a net increase of 385. Club Plan church subscriptions also increased by 246. Every Home Plan subscriptions, however, which require participation by 20 percent of the resident church membership and are included in the church budget, declined by approximately 30,000.Conclusion:
Although some persons have canceled their individual subscriptions and some churches have reduced or canceled their Club Plans, these losses are offset by new subscriptions. The major area of decline is in the "Every Home Plan". (Therefore, when the committee conducted our survey, we focused on declining subscriptions for churches, not for individuals. Neither did we survey churches that maintained or increased their subscriptions.)
4.
The Craig and Associates readership survey, the Recorder editor and directors, and the editors of other state papers who responded agree that changing reading habits have contributed to the overall decline in Baptist paper readership, including that of the Recorder. Specifically, people in general are reading less, and younger church members read the Recorder less often than older ones do.The committee's informal opinion survey bears this out: The question which received the largest number of responses in the "some influence" and "strong influence" categories was "Younger members didn't read the Recorder as older ones did."
Conclusion:
5.
The Craig and Associates survey, the Recorder editor and directors, and our editorial respondents suggest that flat financial conditions in the churches have had an impact on declining subscriptions. The numbers in our opinion survey are ambiguous about this as a cause, but the written comments support it. Many respondents indicated that, for budget reasons, their churches have switched from the Every Home Plan to the Club Plan or to individual subscriptions. Forty-four percent of the respondents indicated that their churches encourage members to subscribe to the Recorder.
Conclusion:
We are not as certain about this conclusion as about some others, but it does appear that churches which have switched from the "Every Home Plan" to "Club" or individual subscriptions for financial reasons account for some of the decline in the "Every Home Plan" and the slight individual and "Club" plan increases.
6.
Our sources also agree that a nationwide decline in denominational loyalty and interest among all faith groups may explain some of the decline in Recorder subscriptions. About half of our survey respondents thought that "congregational disinterest in state and national convention issues" had "some influence" or "strong influence" on the decision to reduce or cancel subscriptions.Conclusion:
The decline in denominational identity among church members is mirrored, to some degree, in the decline of Recorder subscriptions.
7.
The Craig and Associates survey, the Recorder editor and directors, and the responding editors of other state papers unanimously agree that the controversy in the Southern Baptist Convention has "spilled over" into all of the state papers, including ours. The spillover appears to have had two effects:First, about half of those responding to our informal survey hold the opinion that growing "tired of the controversy among Baptists" had "some influence" or "strong influence" on the decision to reduce or cancel subscriptions. This opinion was sometimes, but not always, correlated with a respondent's desire for the Recorder to focus more on devotional and mission matters and less on denominational politics. Comments written on the surveys indicate that these opinions are held both by people who agree and who disagree with the editorial perspective of the Recorder.
Second, it is clear that many churches have reduced or canceled their subscriptions because of the Recorder's stance in the controversy. Regarding questions on our survey related to "disagreement with editorial perspective" and the perception of "biased news reporting," about 34 percent of the respondents agree that those opinions had "strong influence" on their decision to reduce or cancel subscriptions, and about 11 percent reported "some influence."
Comments written on the surveys were frequent in number and passionately expressed. On the other hand, about 41 percent of respondents to the same questions indicated that such opinions had "no influence" on their decision to reduce or cancel, and many wrote comments supportive of the Recorder and its editor. (About 14 percent did not answer these questions.) In short, questions concerning the editorial perspective and news reporting in the Recorder yielded the most polarized responses on the survey, with similar numbers going either way.
Statistical information from the Convention Annuals and provided by other editors also sheds some light here.
Subscriptions to the 12 analogous state Baptist papers have all declined over the last 10 years, regardless of whether an individual paper's stance was perceived as conservative, moderate or neutral.
One of the 12 papers has featured first one editor clearly identified with the moderate perspective and later an editor clearly identified with the conservative perspective; circulation of the paper declined under each editor.
One state paper (not included in the 12) that is almost universally identified with the conservative perspective recorded a 10-year circulation decline of 38 percent, even as one of the larger and more moderate of the papers posted a 40 percent decline.
As one state editor wrote to us, "Not for one minute would I deny that editorial content has influenced some readers to subscribe or to cancel their state Baptist paper subscriptions. However, I do not believe the facts support the conclusion that being åmoderate' or åconservative' determines the direction of circulation figures for one's publication."
CONCLUSION:
The controversy in the Southern Baptist Convention certainly has influenced the decline in circulation of the Biblical Recorder. Some readers on both sides of the issue have grown weary of the conflict and have quit reading.Others are strongly opposed to the Recorder's stance and have reduced or canceled their subscriptions, although a similar number support the Recorder's perspective and have reduced or canceled for other reasons. Nationwide, a paper's particular perspective on the controversy appears not to be a reliable predictor of a circulation decline; whether the paper takes either side or no side, some people are going to be displeased, and circulation will be affected.
Summary
The decline in subscriptions to the Biblical Recorder began prior to the coming of the current editor and parallels a similar decline in most of the other state Baptist papers, especially those most like the Recorder in location, age, size and demographics.Causes include changes in the reading habits of the general population, and especially among younger church members; the erosion of denominational loyalty and interest; financial conditions in some churches, inducing them to switch from the Every Home Plan to individual and Club Plan subscriptions; and the denominational controversy.
Some readers on both sides are tired of the conflict; others exhibit strongly polarized opinions regarding the Recorder's stance, but national and state trends indicate that circulation is declining regardless of a paper's position on the issues.
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The committee commends the editor and directors of the Biblical Recorder for their forthcoming responses and cooperation, along with the editors of the other state papers who responded to our letter, the many people who answered our survey and those who wrote to us with ideas and suggestions.
